The images from Bucha are horrific and hard to witness. And, if history serves, it will prove very hard to bring those responsible to justice through any court, even with the specter of chemical weapons. Ukraine is in ruins; if we stopped the war today it will take years if not decades to rebuild. Most of its population is either refugees or a target of war crimes. And, an equally terrible global food crisis that promises to kill many more. Even as we risk having yet another situation where we are unable to assert effective deterrence of use of chemical weapons; once again red line which will be crossed. Yet, the West, NATO and the US are still trying to avoid a conflict, allowing Putin to threaten nuclear force.
There is growing evidence that sanctions are not working and it will be harder and harder to make them work over time. Despite western efforts, Russia has managed to pay its international debts. Rising oil prices mean that Russia is still bringing in millions. As oil prices rise, China and India are not going to be willing to support sanctions. Even Europe cannot quickly wean itself off Russia energy. Putin is an autocrat who doesn’t care about the people who will really suffer because of sanctions–his own people. In some ways sanctions are counterproductive. They play into Putin’s domestic misinformation campaign. He will continue. There is no deterrence.
The politics of Europe is already shifting. There are doubts about the long term military commitments of Germany. The French president is in a close run-off with a candidate who was close to Russia. The US is squandering yet another opportunity to capitalize on the world unity and argue for military intervention. Waiting will just make it harder to bring the world together. Zelensky is right, more needs to be done and more needs to be done now.
Condemnation is not enough. Simply arming the Ukrainians is going to prove inadequate. At best, it will create a long grinding war that slowly wears down the Ukrainian people, similar to what the world saw in Syria. At worst, it will mean the use of chemical weapons. At that point, military intervention will become a necessity. The US would again be in the position it was in during the war in Syria.
Putin has carte blanche to do as he pleases in Ukraine. If we are ultimately going to have to confront a nuclear armed Russia, the moment is now. Every day we wait only brings about more suffering for the Ukrainian people and the world’s hungry.
Progressive Without Apology 