Eventually

For the moment, there is a united front against Russia and for Ukraine, but worrying cracks in the alliance are beginning to form. Hungry is refusing to go along with an oil embargo.  France is wondering if the US is going too far in seeking to weaken Russia as well as protect Ukraine’s sovereignty.  For now, no one is suggesting that Ukraine is not going to get what it needs.  Both the US and Germany have put together large military aid packages.  And a sophisticated and extremely sincere public relations campaign on the part of Zelensky is motivating the world to act.

Right now, there is a newly united Europe and NATO.  However, the differences between allies demonstrate a fundamental flaw in economic sanctions.  Even if the West does manage to stick together, Putin will wait. The economic effects of sanctions on the West will be perceived by Putin as an Achilles heel; and Putin may have a point.  If, over time, it becomes increasingly difficult for the whole world to stay on message, sanctions will become less and less of a deterrent.  Even if the West can continue to stand behind Ukraine at any cost, Putin isn’t going to get the message.  He will wait and see, hoping that over time economic sanctions hurt the West more than they hurt him.   Meanwhile, Ukraine is burning, and the West is living in fear of a potential nuclear attack.

The world community is telling itself that the status quo is acceptable because sanctions will eventually work.   But “Eventually,” is too far into the future.  If we take that attitude eventually Putin will win.  He will, if not know, then at least believe he can wait us out.  “Eventually”, what we are doing now is going to stop working.    

Even more importantly, Putin is winning even as he is making few gains in Ukraine–he is being allowed to decimate the country.  Putin is gaining power by fear, which is what every dictator wants most.  This is evidenced by the desire, some might say need, of Scandinavian countries to join NATO.  Putin may be losing the battle in Ukraine for now, but he is winning the broader war in that he is forcing the entire world to live in fear of his military might.  He controls the situation, and he controls the conversation, and he will continue to do so until the world community works together to not only get Russia out of Ukraine but also to establish that he is not going to be able to bully anybody else.  I have said for a long time now that Zelensky is right. Ukraine needs a no-fly-zone.  Dancing around Russia fearing a broader conflict is not a sustainable policy.  Meeting Russia head on right now has its dangers, but there is a greater danger–that the world community will grind into a never-ending conflict with an adversary that cannot be deterred.  Eventually, we will have to face Putin, let us face him on our own terms.