The Most Important Battle

As the war in Ukraine grinds on, there is little focus on the most important battle that will ever be fought during this war–the battle for the hearts and minds of the Russian people.  The West must find ways to help Ukraine win this battle, because winning it provides the best, if not the only, hope of winning the war.  Polls show that Russians believe the propaganda that their government spews out.  The West seems resigned to the Russian population supporting the war. But knowing what the Russian people really believe is very hard.  As Russian casualties mount, Russian public opinion may be the chinck in Putin’s armor.  Over the long term, the most important aspect of Ukraine’s military advances, and brave strategic retreats, may very well prove to be that the more casualties Ukraine inflicts on the Russians, the harder it will be for Putin to distort the reality of his war at home.  

 Putin’s war is really his war.  He cares nothing for his own people.  He has engaged them in a pointless war with incredible costs, not only economically, but in lives.  The sooner the Russian people realize this, the sooner Putin will be forced to stop the war.  The war in Ukraine will be one war where the battle for ideas will prove to be vastly more important than long-range missiles.  The best way for Ukraine to win this war, is not by slow military attrition but by a constant wearing down of Putin’s ability to mobilize his people.

Unfortunately, the US is missing a crucial opportunity to support Ukraine in a way that doesn’t risk escalating the conflict.  During the Soviet era the West mobilized a tremendous anti-propaganda response.  Ultimately, it was this ability to influence ideas within the country that brought the mighty Soviet empire down.  America did not sack Moscow or even defeat the Soviets by wearing down their military might.  America ended the Cold War when the peoples of the Soviet Union embraced American values, and did so in the face of one of history’s worst (or best) propaganda machines.  

There is another front in the war of ideas with Russia, and that is the majority of countries in the world that do not want to take a stand against Russia and for Ukraine.  These nations represent both a terrible problem, especially when it comes to enforcing sanctions, and an incredible opportunity.  For instance, there is untapped potential in India, the world’s most populous democracy.  As it stands now, India is poised to take advantage of cut-rate Russian oil.  But, with skillful diplomacy, the war in Ukraine could become an opportunity to make the case for democracy around the world.  It is a time for America to reevaluate what it means to foster democracy abroad.  The power of ideas in this war cannot be overstated. It is the best weapon we have, and it will prove to be more important than any anti-tank missile system or UAV.