The decision of OPEC+ to cut oil production underscores just how much sanctions aren’t working. They have created an energy crisis in the West, alienated developing nations, and done little to slow the pace of Putin’s war machine. That doesn’t mean that they shouldn’t exist, it just means they are not going to be a reliable military tool. They will not end the slaughter in Ukraine. It is time that the West face up to the fact that sanctions are going to have limited effectiveness and painful side effects. The idea that was posited at the beginning of this war that sanctions would bring down the Russian economy and with it their military might is proving to be just false.
The West should not have imposed sanctions without first thinking through how Putin would retaliate. Then, the West did not consider how Russian propaganda might shape attitudes towards the war in other countries and how important those attitudes would be–how they would translate in economic actions. They assumed, wrongly, that the rest of the world would automatically support what they saw as an obvious injustice. But why would they? At the same moment that the West assumed they would have the support of the developing world, it failed to step up to the plate to ensure the World Food Program was adequately funded. This meant that starving people all over the world held the West responsible for famine exacerbated by the run-away inflation of staple foods. Instead of making Putin a pariah, over reliance on sanctions is fueling another Cold War.
Sanctions are making a positive difference. It is just that they have limitations. The West must be realistic about what they will and will not accomplish. They won’t bring down Puntin’s war machine. They won’t solve the problem of his nuclear threat, or the problem of his ability to use his vast oil wealth to build an army, at least not for the near term. They are a short term solution to what will prove to be a long term problem. And, rather than getting worse for Russia over time, it may be that over time Russia finds more and more ways of getting around sanctions, while Europe and the West have energy crisses that only worsen.
Rather than rely on sanctions the West needs to develop alternative strategies for dealing with Putin, and even more importantly, come to terms with the problems the current sanctions are going to create. Ultimately, the war in Ukraine will be won when Putin is no longer able to shield his people from its effects. It is the Russian people who will end the war in Ukraine, not Putin. Sanctions do have a positive role to play here. They can hasten the day that Putin will no longer have the ability to lie to his own people about a costly, pointless, and morally bankrupt war. They can help to do the thing that will really end the slaughter–undermine his propaganda.
Progressive Without Apology 