The general consensus is that Ukraine is winning the war–that things are not going well for the Russians. In many ways, this would seem to be the case. But in important ways, Russia is winning. You would be, for instance, hard pressed to convince the people of Moldova that the status quo is sustainable. In this small, poor country whose fate it is to be situated between Russia and Ukraine, people are suffering and being pushed past the breaking point. Meanwhile, Russia is following a familiar playbook of fomenting political unrest–the kind of fomenting of unrest that has led every other time to invasion. Although it is unlikely that Russia will attack and open another front in an already struggling war effort, it is not beyond imagination for Russia to begin lobbing shells at its diminutive neighbor, especially considering its history of interfering militarily in Moldova.
What the Moldovan conflict speaks to is the power that the Kremlin still has to sow chaos the world over and force people to live in fear. Even here in the West where we have somewhat of a buffer from the effects of the war, those of us who are less economically advantaged (and some of those of us who aren’t) are already feeling the pain. The world over, poor and middle-income peoples face hunger, sky-rocketinger energy prices and the inability to fertilize their fields. The people of Moldova may prove to be the canary in the mine shaft.
The West is making a critical miscalculation in believing that the rest of the world will support its Ukraine policies indefinitely. It isn’t highly likely that the West will support the policies of the West indefinitely. Even here in America, there are stirrings of discontent against the amount of aid being given to Ukraine.
What is called for is a drastic upscaling of the effort to not only defend Ukraine, but defeat the Russians. A move away from a defensive posture to a war plan of decisive victory. The world worries about escalation–as it should. But, in reality, the greatest risk for escalation is that as Putin looses his gound war he will take to indescriminate bombing of civilinas beyound the borders of Ukraine. Short of nuclear war, this is a worse case scenario for the widening of the war.
America and the West face a difficult conundrum–how to win the war in Ukraine without starting a broad war that could turn into a world war. But the solution cannot be to not win the war and allow the conflict to grind to a stalemate. Soon, something will have to give. Either Ukraine will win, or Russia will wear the world down. Militarily, the world community has an opportunity–we should take it. Russia is running low on the things that make a war work–money, supplies, and most importantly, morale. If we act decisively for Ukraine at this moment, we will resolve this crisis. When we do not, it is Russia who is winning.
Progressive Without Apology 