The recent ceremony between Russia and China reaffirming their military and diplomatic bond was disturbing but not surprising. Putin now has, in Xi Jinping, another dictator at his side, one that might be willing and able to defy Western sanctions. If anything, the unintended consequences of sanctions have the possibility of making circumstances worse instead of better over the long haul. The West now runs the risk of igniting a new Cold War. Already some in the global south are lined up on two sides– China vs. America and NATO. Already, some like India and Brazil are finding it politically impossible to remain neutral. And for a long time now, China has been the chink in the armor of Western sanctions.
China is giving Putin the thing he needs most–more than money or arms–time. Putin now has the advantage of being able to sit on his hands and hope that the rest of the world will tire of a conflict of attrition. If the world community fails to act more aggressively now, we risk Ukraine becoming yet another forever war; decisive Ukrainian victories are needed soon. Ukraine will have to make some headway or we risk the conflict becoming a quagmire. Putin is waiting out the world community. And the world community is letting him do it.
In the meantime, most concerning are calls from many Republicans, including a potential frontrunner for the Republican primary, for America to pull out of a “territorial dispute” with absolutely no understanding of the broader implications of a Russian victory.
If anything, the world community still doesn’t understand how much is at stake. The situation is much more dire than people are now recognizing. We risk both Russia and China learning that if they test the West hard enough, they will win. In the name of not being escalatory, America and the West are actually increasing the possibility that there will be a nuclear threat in the future, because China is learning that nuclear saber rattling is effective as a deterrent. Now China is upping the ante in the Taiwan Strait, and investing in more nuclear technology. In the name of not provoking Putin, we risk a broader conflict with an emboldened China in the not too distant future.
Ukraine needs a lot more help, and they need it now. The biggest problems we have now stem from not having given Ukraine the things they wanted and needed in the first place. Much has been lost by delaying sending things like tanks; further delay could cost us the war. Give Ukraine what it needs. And prepare for a scenario where China gives Putin what he needs. We told ourselves Putin wouldn’t really invade. Let’s not fool ourselves into believing he won’t really get help from China. Give Ukraine everything it needs to prevail, even if it does mean doing things that are “escalatory.” If it means sending troops; send troops. Bring the conflict to an end. Further delay will only strengthen the Russia-China relationship.
Progressive Without Apology 