Old Mistakes and a New Syria

It is a time of both hope and uncertainty for the Syrian people.  Assad is gone and the international community has an opportunity to strike a blow against terrorism around the world.  But will the ones taking over take over–will they even be able to hold onto power?  For now the rebel groups seem content to work under the leadership of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), but when the legislative process begins will they be able to hold a diverse country together?  

According to Trump and the doctrine of “America First,” what is going on in Syria does not affect America.  But “America First” really means “America Only” i.e. America alone in the world.  

The problem with isolationism is that in the modern real world there’s no way for any one country to live in isolation from events in another. If the US and the international community don’t act, Syria may very well become yet another base of international terrorism.  We can bring stability to Syria now, or we can be forced into a foreign war when a terrorist threat we absolutely cannot ignore develops.  Not acting in Syria risks yet another failed state and yet another forever war.   Skillful diplomacy and engagement can prevent not only the next conflict in Syria, but help put an end to conflicts throughout the region. 

Furthermore, if the US wants to have legitimacy on the world stage it has to take the moral high ground, and make human rights a priority.  Otherwise, “America First” will mean “America Alone–” isolated and without the political capital it needs during the next crisis.

America is at a moment when it risks making the same mistake it has made time and time again.  We know this story.  International pressure and wars against terrorists have finally brought down a dictator.  But the absence of a governing force proves even more devastating than authoritarianism.  With the war over, will we lose the peace?  Right now the international community doesn’t seem to know what to make of the rebel forces.  HTS started the business of running the country, and that certainly is a good sign.  But no one seems to know  for sure whether they are inclusive and relatively moderate or yet another Islamist regime in the Middle East.  

What worries me the most is that  Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seems to be having an identity crisis of its own.  America and the international community cannot afford to lose this opportunity to apply the pressure necessary to ensure that HTS understands that it is in its interests to pursue a moderate agenda, and to keep any hard-liners within its ranks away from power.  HTS has a history of being a terrorist organization.  That doesn’t necessarily mean it has to have a future as a terrorist organization.

Truly putting “America First” means understanding that what happens in other parts of the world affects us here at home.  It is a simple reality of the modern world that cannot ever be avoided.

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