For generations, Americans have neglected to recognize the importance of government at the state and local level.  Suddenly, state legislatures all over the country have become extremely important.  Their role in elections and important legislation is no longer minimal. Therefore , it is time for progressives to refocus.  It does little good to win at the federal level if state legislatures are able to gut historic civil rights legislation and roll back the clock on a woman’s right to choose.  This means taking a new approach to addressing people’s needs.  It is an approach well overdue in the first place.  

People want, need and deserve a government that works to solve the problems they face in their everyday lives.  Large pieces of legislation are good, but people need to feel that politicians are  sincerely worried about more than just beating their opponent, that they care about making people’s lives better. Politics must be more than party.  Otherwise. any political group, no how ideologically in the right, cannot remain relevant and cannot remain in power.  Small things matter–whether or not the streets get fixed, whether or not the bus runs on time.  Things like this matter a lot.  Progressives have an opportunity as well as a crisis.  They can make themselves into the political force that cares about everyday concrete things, and show that extremists within the Republican party are so focused on culture wars they don’t care about things that really matter in everyday life.  

It will become a question of whether or not progressives can make themselves relevant in the face of a population where many are consumed with just getting by and putting food on the table.  This search for relevance hasn’t happened enough.  Part of the blame lies with the Republican party, who have shut down any attempt to make real positive changes in the lives of people through fear mongering.  

In some ways progressives have only themselves to blame.  Much of what it has come to mean to be a progressives to be against a MAGA Republican.  This is not enough.  And, when we approach conflict from such a negative perspective we actually play into the hands of extremists.  We become the party of ideology and they become the party of answers.  It doesn’t have to be this way.

In its own way the new focus on state legislatures is a mixed blessing in that it will force progressives, particularly progressives in the Democratic Party, to stay grounded.  This may finally be the moment that progressives have to stand up and become the party of answers and possibilities, and not simply the party that is anti-Trump.  State legislators have the power to bring progressives back to where our roots began and to force us to move forward with real plans that meet real world problems.  Taking back democracy will happen one small election at a time, just as it was lost one small election at a time.

The decision of OPEC+ to cut oil production underscores just how much sanctions aren’t working.  They have created an energy crisis in the West, alienated developing nations, and done little to slow the pace of Putin’s war machine.  That doesn’t mean that they shouldn’t exist, it just means they are not going to be a reliable military tool.  They will not end the slaughter in Ukraine.  It is time that the West face up to the fact that sanctions are going to have limited effectiveness and painful side effects.  The idea that was posited at the beginning of this war that sanctions would bring down the Russian economy and with it their military might is proving to be just false.   

The West should not have imposed sanctions without first thinking through how Putin would retaliate.  Then, the West did not consider how Russian propaganda might shape attitudes towards the war in other countries and how important those attitudes would be–how they would translate in economic actions.  They assumed, wrongly, that the rest of the world would automatically support what they saw as an obvious injustice.  But why would they?  At the same moment that the West assumed they would have the support of the developing world, it failed to step up to the plate to ensure the World Food Program was adequately funded.  This meant that starving people all over the world held the West responsible for famine exacerbated by the run-away inflation of staple foods.  Instead of making Putin a pariah, over reliance on sanctions is fueling another Cold War.

Sanctions are making a positive difference.  It is just that they have limitations.  The West must be realistic about what they will and will not accomplish.  They won’t bring down Puntin’s war machine.  They won’t solve the problem of his nuclear threat, or the problem of his ability to use his vast oil wealth to build an army, at least not for the near term.  They are a short term solution to what will prove to be a long term problem.  And, rather than getting worse for Russia over time, it may be that over time Russia finds more and more ways of getting around sanctions, while Europe and the West have energy crisses that only worsen. 

Rather than rely on sanctions the West needs to develop alternative strategies for dealing with Putin, and even more importantly, come to terms with the problems the current sanctions are going to create.  Ultimately, the war in Ukraine will be won when Putin is no longer able to shield his people from its effects.  It is the Russian people who will end the war in Ukraine, not Putin.  Sanctions do have a positive role to play here.  They can hasten the day that Putin will no longer have the ability to lie to his own people about a costly, pointless, and morally bankrupt war.  They can help to do the thing that will really end the slaughter–undermine his propaganda.  

The most important political question in America today is whether there will be long-term political rewards for not speaking up against, or even actively condoning, the January 6th insurrection.  It is amazing, and scary, that we have to even ask this question.  At the time of the insurrection, virtually everyone was unanimous in condemning the violence and death.  What happened?  As the leaders of the Oath Keepers prepare their defenses against sedition charges, it is clear that many politicians are actually gaining a political benefit from supporting or condoning their actions.

This is a moment for a national reckoning about just why this kind of misinformation is spreading.  Granted, social media makes combating misinformation harder and presents us with new challenges, but new challenges have happened before in history, and we can and must choose to rise to those challenges, understanding that democracy is at stake.  Ultimately, there are too many people willing to believe Trump and his lies, too many people who cannot see through the Big Lie, and most importantly, too few who can understand that using violence to achieve political aims is fundamentally wrong and undemocratic.  What is driving Trump’s power is not Trump the man, it is his ability to convince over 70% of the Republican party of what ought to immediately be seen as irrational, what may very well go down in history as one of the most important deceptions in human history.  

In the final analysis, Trump did not come out of nowhere.  He is a symptom of a disease that has plagued America for several generations.  His presidency was a culmination of a right-wing movement that wasn’t taken seriously enough–one that still remains inadequately unaddressed today.  It isn’t just the growth of groups like the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys.  It is the growth of a population that doesn’t recognize the danger these kinds of groups pose to the nation and to democracy, that can’t understand the importance of not giving them a political advantage.  

Reaching Trump supporters is not the issue.  Often, that will prove to be next to impossible.  Outreach needs to be done to those who do not have extreme ideas but are willing to tolerate people who do.  As much as the rise of Trump is a problem of Trump’s almost cult-like following, there is a movement of people willing to tolerate his movement, willing to vote for a man willing to disrupt the peaceful transfer of power.

It is the result of years of neglect of education in citizenship.  For years, researchers and scholars have warned that America was not and is not doing enough to ensure that its youngest citizens learn what they need to know to be effective participants in democracy.  As a nation, America must come together to teach its children what citizenship means in the age of mis- and dis-information.  The only way out of this crisis is a future generation who knows a Big Lie when they hear one. 

Donald Trump is now involved in no less than six major legal complications.  Even with all of his problems, millions of people and a major party are willing to back, and even potentially re-nominate, this man.  It’s  scary.  But Trump isn’t what’s keeping me up at night.  His continued power within the Republican party begs the question: If a candidate can have this many problems while openly espousing this extreme a philosophy and continue to be the standard bearer of his party, what will happen when someone steps up with equally dangerous ideas who is politically astute enough to not generate constant scandal?  What will happen when we have a candidate embracing Trumpism who displays intelligence and political leadership?  Trump is a political idiot with openly extreme ideas.  The next threat to American democracy will be neither.

When you step back and think about it, the only thing that we have going for us is Trump’s own stupidity.  Think of access Hollywood.  Any astute politician would never let such a political blunder occur.  Any politican with any degree of political wisdom would know enough to not admit to sexually assualting women in the past while on the campaign trail.  Examine Trump’s actions and attitudes surrounding the top secret documents at Mar-a-lago. It’s virtual political suicide. His actions were blatantly illegal, were done without any regard whatsoever for whether he would be caught and carried out for no apparent reason.  Then, he had lawyers unable to give him a decent representation.  And, of course, there is the pandemic, and Trump’s botched response to it.  Most people agree that this is much of what lost him the election.  Where would we be if he had proved a competent and able leader in a time of crisis?  Trump has constantly kept himself in the spotlight–in negative ways.  Our best, and often only, weapon against Trump has been Trump.  But this can’t last. 

If the Republican party finds itself too politically impotent to move against Trump, what will happen when someone who is cunning as well as deceitful attempts to co-opt the power of a major political party to use as a Trojan horse for an extermist agenda?  

 Trump isn’t the one that should worry us.  Eventually, Trump will bring himself down with his own political incompetence.  What should really worry us is the next generation of Trump acolytes who are able to keep out of constant legal and political entanglements.  History teaches us that eventually a leader will step forward who has ideas just as dangerous, or who is perhaps even more extreme, and who is politically calculating.  An intelligent, politically astute Trump follower is an inevitable part of America’s future.

Bringing down Trump will not, in and of itself, be enough over the long term.  We will have to bring down his extreme ideas, or we risk defeat from a truly dangerous opponent later.  

Life expectancy has rebounded in America’s peer countries as the pandemic has eased.  But in America it only continues to drop.  The numbers underscore a need for a national reckoning, and examination of what these low numbers really mean, what they say about the state of health and health care in America, and what the root causes of America’s botched response to Covid really were and continue to be.

Some of the low life expectancy overall in America can be accounted for by the very low numbers in minority groups.  The numbers for American Indians and Alaska Natives are downright disturbing.  According to the National Center for Health Statistics, life expectancy for American Indian and Alaska Natives is, due largely to Covid, 65.2 years.   The New York Times writes, “Average life expectancy in these populations is now ‘lower than that of every country in the Americas except Haiti, which is astounding,’ said Noreen Goldman, professor of demography and public affairs at the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs.”  

The problem was not vaccine hesitancy on the part of these communities.  The vaccine rollout was a success; their rates of vaccination higher than many other racial groups.  The most critical problem is that the public health structures tasked with serving these communities have been under-resourced and neglected so long.  This created two problems: there was not reliable access to health care when the crisis hit, and an underserved population had pre-existing medical conditions that made them more susceptible to severe illness and death.

The government has a responsibility to take a hard look at how this national tragedy was and is being allowed to occur.  Rohelle Walensky is moving in the right direction, saying that the CDC needs to overhaul the way it relates to the American people, particularly minority communities.  But, the problems run far deeper than just a failure to communicate at the CDC.  Public health on every level failed in this pandemic.  Walensky can’t do it alone.  It takes a national effort to solve a national problem.  That means the entire US citizenry has to be engaged.  

Lack of proper public health has been a silent epidemic in America for far too long.  Health professionals on the ground have pleaded with governments on every level to do something for decades.  Many could see the failures of the Covid pandemic coming.  If we had been listening, we would all be living in a very different world.  Covid deaths were preventable not only because they resulted from a failed public health response, but also because too many Americans, particularly minorities, were too unhealthy to begin with because of chronic underinvestment in public health.  We have an opportunity to say that those who died in the pandemic did not die in vain–that America will learn through their deaths to address the silent epidemic of underfunded public health.  

It has been too long to address the health discrepancies of minority communities and the overall poor health of this nation: if not now, when?

As the war in Ukraine grinds on, there is little focus on the most important battle that will ever be fought during this war–the battle for the hearts and minds of the Russian people.  The West must find ways to help Ukraine win this battle, because winning it provides the best, if not the only, hope of winning the war.  Polls show that Russians believe the propaganda that their government spews out.  The West seems resigned to the Russian population supporting the war. But knowing what the Russian people really believe is very hard.  As Russian casualties mount, Russian public opinion may be the chinck in Putin’s armor.  Over the long term, the most important aspect of Ukraine’s military advances, and brave strategic retreats, may very well prove to be that the more casualties Ukraine inflicts on the Russians, the harder it will be for Putin to distort the reality of his war at home.  

 Putin’s war is really his war.  He cares nothing for his own people.  He has engaged them in a pointless war with incredible costs, not only economically, but in lives.  The sooner the Russian people realize this, the sooner Putin will be forced to stop the war.  The war in Ukraine will be one war where the battle for ideas will prove to be vastly more important than long-range missiles.  The best way for Ukraine to win this war, is not by slow military attrition but by a constant wearing down of Putin’s ability to mobilize his people.

Unfortunately, the US is missing a crucial opportunity to support Ukraine in a way that doesn’t risk escalating the conflict.  During the Soviet era the West mobilized a tremendous anti-propaganda response.  Ultimately, it was this ability to influence ideas within the country that brought the mighty Soviet empire down.  America did not sack Moscow or even defeat the Soviets by wearing down their military might.  America ended the Cold War when the peoples of the Soviet Union embraced American values, and did so in the face of one of history’s worst (or best) propaganda machines.  

There is another front in the war of ideas with Russia, and that is the majority of countries in the world that do not want to take a stand against Russia and for Ukraine.  These nations represent both a terrible problem, especially when it comes to enforcing sanctions, and an incredible opportunity.  For instance, there is untapped potential in India, the world’s most populous democracy.  As it stands now, India is poised to take advantage of cut-rate Russian oil.  But, with skillful diplomacy, the war in Ukraine could become an opportunity to make the case for democracy around the world.  It is a time for America to reevaluate what it means to foster democracy abroad.  The power of ideas in this war cannot be overstated. It is the best weapon we have, and it will prove to be more important than any anti-tank missile system or UAV.

If you had told me in 2001, after the terrorist attacks of 9/11, that I would someday count Dick Cheney’s daughter as an ally I would have emphatically told you you had lost your mind.  But now, with Cheney having excepted her primary defeat with utter graciousness, I really have come to respect her.  Now is a moment where all of us need to put aside partisan differences and focus on what it is going to take to get American democracy back on track, soon.  

Cheney began that process, not even so much by spearheading the January 6th committee, but even more so in the way that she chose to accept defeat.  Let us hope, by the grace of God, that her gesture becomes a movement, and that if it does all progressives will be willing support her in any way we can.  We, as progressives, must find out what our role in all this is.  On the one hand, we cannot determine the fate of a party that is not our own.  The Republicans will have to fight this one out for themselves.  On the other hand, we cannot just sit idly by, and not support people who genuinely care about democracy at a time like this.  During Cheney’s primary many Democrats switched sides.  I don’t know if this is the answer.  I believe politics works best when people are sincere in their beliefs.  

The best path for Cheney is the creation of a third party.  The realities of the current Republican leadership leave her little other choice.  I do not say this out of a selfish desire to see the presidential election go to the Democrats.  I believe sincerely that it is in the best interest of the health of American democracy.  The political reality Cheney faces is that the Republican party is now the party of Trump, and that is a party that she can and should never countenance.  In a perfect world she would be leading the charge to reform the Republican party to what it once was–a political party, not a cult of personality; a group that wanted what was best for its nation, not to perpetuate the power of one man.  But the best realistic scenario is for what is left of the genuine Republican party to coalesce, giving conservatives an option other than Trump.

Liz Cheney needs her own party so she can begin to counteract the power of Trump to determine who wins primary elections.  A third party may be a long shot for the presidency, but one led by Cheney could make very real ground in congress, and that would break the stranglehold the ultra-conservatives have on any and all Republican votes.  A party led by Cheney could become a real force in congress, and voters might be willing to recognize that.

Let us hope that the January 6th committee is the beginning and not the end of a handful of increasingly important conservative Republicans finding they can help their country.

Energy prices are coming down and that is a relief to people all over the world.  But the impact of these lower prices also tells us something about the political and economic implications of the world community having turned its back on addressing climate change.  Oil prices have such a stranglehold on our economy that they have come to dominate our politics.  The price of gas may very well determine the next president.  As the health of American democracy hangs in the balance, the situation is increasingly unsustainable.  One of the greatest arguments in favor of addressing climate change is the need of the international community to wrest itself from the grip of big fossil fuel corporations. 

All over the world, the price of one commodity is central to political power and economic prosperity.  Practically all of the world economy finds itself at the mercy of a few large corporations and a few oil producing nations in one way or another.  Now, with the passage of Biden’s climate change bill we finally have an opportunity to free the world from the economic vice of oil price volatility.

It hits the poor especially hard, the world over and here at home.  Due to our reliance on fossil fuels, the poorest among us are having to pay a greater and greater percentage of their income on transportation costs. The best and most obvious solution is investment in clean public transportation.  If America had thought ahead and invested in clean energy, low-income people would be benefiting from increased investment in public transportation and electric vehicles that have greater fuel efficiency.  Instead, low-income people are forced to use older, fuel inefficient cars, paying more over time, having their pockets drained while they can’t put food on the table.  Meanwhile, big oil reaps the profits.  

Unfortunately, as Biden signs his climate legislation, not enough attention is focused on how clean energy should and could benefit low-income people.   Wind and solar are now cheaper than coal and oil, and more importantly, wind and solar energy are independent of the oil market.  Even if wind and solar were more expensive in the short term, in the long term dependence on fossil fuels makes us vulnerable to the caprices of the market.  Not to mention the fact that the American taxpayer spends billions of dollars each year in subsidies in an effort to keep gas affordable for people who are forced to rely on it.  If Americans had other transportation and energy options, the $20 billion a year America spends on subsidies for fossil fuels (according to the Enviromental Engery and Study Institute) might finally become not only unnecessary but politically untenable.

This situation can be rectified.  America lags behind the rest of the world in making sure that everyone benefits from climate action, and the whole of society suffers because of it.  There are things we can do today, consciously, to ensure that those who have the least benefit the most from fighting climate change. 

The upcoming midterm elections may very well prove to be the most consequential in American history.  At stake is the health (or lack thereof) of American democracy.  The raid on Mar-a-lago and the unsealing of the warrant and property receipt are a welcome sign that the Justice Department is finally moving forward in the right direction.  But Trump’s legal problems are a double-edged sword.  

They bring Trump front and center into the news, making it hard for Republican candidates to have it both ways–distance themselves from Trump without directly standing up to him.  But, in the crazy, backwards politics of the Republican party, Trump’s legal problems assure him the nomination. This Justice Department action could be a huge win for Republicans in the midterms, as Democrats will be cast as being too busy with a witch hunt to be concerned with kitchen table issues like inflation and rising crime.   

Overall, the Justice Department’s handling of the situation hasn’t made things any better.  Garland finally spoke to the American people, and said the thing that needed to be said–the law must be enforced without “fear or favor.”  But it may prove to be too little too late.  The raid has galvanized Trump supporters, and Republican lawmakers have jumped to Trump’s defense.  Now, it will be critical to make the case that Trump’s crimes warranted the DOJ’s action, and make that case with all haste.

Meanwhile, more and more election deniers are on more and more ballots and winning more and more races all across the country.  The November midterms may be a proving ground for the nation’s ability to hold orderly elections and maintain a peaceful transfer of power.  It is impossible to know if election deniers will succeed in disrupting the election process.  If what happened in the last election cycle was a precursor to November, we are in big trouble. 

Even one loss in the senate midterm election could spell the end of any hope of legislative progress for progressives or even moderates.  Unfortunately, the contests may very well be dominated by the president’s historically low poll numbers; and the fact that despite the name of his landmark legislation, he has not thoroughly explained to the American people how he can and will tackle inflation.  Neither will the Democrats win in November by resting on their laurels when it comes to recent legislative victories.  

What will ultimately determine the outcome of the November midterms is the ability of Democrats to turn out their base, and to make this election about Trump’s extremism.  It will be a contest of energy.    

We face the prospect of the ultra-conservatives and those willing to be obsequies to them gaining control of legislation.  Once they are in power, the president will not be able to stop them.  Now is the time for Biden to take a step back, and ensure the progressive wing of the party is given a voice.  It is they who will carry the party to victory in November.

The Biden Administration believes it has scored a major victory with the death of al-Zawahri, but how much does the death of this one man really mean, what difference will it make going forward?  Will it prove to be a purely symbolic victory or a meaningful step forward for American security?  Perhaps America will be a little safer, but it won’t change the underlying social and political dynamics that led to 9/11.  It is good that Zawahri is dead, no doubt, but the place where he died shows us just how far we are from where we need to be in Afghanistan.

In principle, I support ending America’s longest war, but the reality is that until Afghan women are safe, the American public is not safe.  There is no way for the American public to be safe from terrorism until Afghan women no longer experience terrorism in thier own homes.  Knowing what to do in Afghanistan isn’t easy.  America’s longest war seems to only be going nowhere.  But it is no accident that Al Qaeda has reemerged at the exact moment that journalists are reporting that the Taliban are renewing their persecution of women.  It’s about doing what’s right, and about handling it the right way.  World peace and the welfare of Afghan women are intertwined.

That Biden figured that America was unable to fix Afghanistan is understandable, but that doesn’t mean abandoning Afghan women was an answer either.  This administration is making the mistake of thinking that pulling out and launching drone strikes is somehow going to insulate the American people from the effects of on the ground, day to day tragedies in a country known for being a place where empires go to die.  But thinking this way is how Al Qaeda was set in motion in Afghanistan in the first place.  Warfare has existed in Afghanistan longer than I have been alive (I am 45).  War where civilians, particularly women, were caught in the crossfire.  For decades, the world ignored the plight of the Afghan people.  There seemed no strategic benefit in caring, and when there was the perceived strategic benefit it led America to arm the very people it would one day spend two decades fighting.   

Then came the brutal oppression of women.  Again, there was no strategic reason to care, and so the world ignored the problem.  It took tragic terrorist attacks to make the plight of Afgan women important to the the world community.  

We can choose to learn from this history instead of repeating it.  Whatever the answers, and I don’t pretend to have them all, just allowing Afghan women to be oppressed in their own homes, in their own country, is not the answer.  It is how we got here, and it will do nothing but get us back here again.  Ignoring the persecution of Afghan women is how we got 9/11, and ignoring it again is the best way to have it repeated.