You know that person, and every time you talk to them they have another get rich quick scheme. And they want your money. It never quite works out that way. The devil is in the details. Read the fine print. It looks good on paper. You’ll have to put some money up front but don’t worry because it will all pay off really soon. You end up throwing good money after bad because–it’s complicated. It’s the investment that is too good to be true. Meanwhile, your friend is failing to invest in things that are not sexy but are sound investments that will, over time, present a decent return. They miss opportunities that are right in front of them.
And so it is with Trump. A good example: in the name of achieving an elusive short-term drop in prices, the EPA relaxed enforcement and is considering eliminating 31 air quality regulations. These changes threaten to undo decades of progress in addressing pollution. That progress has had enormous economic benefits. One study showed a 10 to 1 return on investment. Air quality does cost the economy money, and removing regulations will save money. But for every dollar “wasted” ten dollars are saved. Poor air quality increases rates of everything from asthma and COPD to premature death from heart disease. There are the emergency room visits, the doctor’s bills, the lost productivity when people die young. It is just a hell of a lot easier to clean up the air than it is to deal with the health problems from pollution. The Trump administration seems to think that the Clean Air Act became law because of bleeding-heart liberal environmentalism. In reality, people discovered just how much damage air pollution was doing to America’s healthcare system and overall economy. Not only is it the right thing to do, better air quality is a sound investment. It may not be sexy or have an immediate, obvious, tangible benefit for lots of people. You won’t see a price reduction the next time you go to the grocery store. But over the long haul, the Clean Air Act is an extremely wise use of taxpayer dollars.
In stark contrast are Trump’s tariffs. The vast majority of well-respected economists say Trump’s tariffs are a bad economic gamble. The markets agree. It’s not just the trade war. Countries may deliberately weaken their currency. This is bad for them because it makes their imports more expensive, but it makes exports cheaper, rendering tariffs essentially useless. It’s a classic lose-lose, but it may be the only way other countries have of fighting back against capricious trade policies. And rather than intimidation motivating investment in America, longtime economic allies may simply find other trading partners willing to give them a better, fairer, deal on tariffs. Rather than pursuing immediate financial gain, we should invest in the goodwill of trusted trading partners. Rather than “Making America Rich Again” Trump is gambling with the American economy. We have it all on the line.